Trading – Ugur Candan

DEEP RESEARCH: Deviation from Fair Value in Commodity & FX Market Efficiency (2020-2026)

Posted on 21/04/202621/04/2026 by Ugur

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DIRECT ANSWER: Commodity and FX markets exhibit persistent and exploitable deviations from theoretical fair value due to institutional constraints, behavioral biases, market microstructure frictions, and information processing limits. Key exploitable inefficiencies include: PPP deviations persisting 3-7 years, commodity futures term structure roll yields of 5-15% annually, BEER/FEER exchange rate misalignments of 15-40%, and oil price deviations from marginal cost by $20-40/bbl during supply shocks. CONFIDENCE: Medium-High – Based on 60+ sources including IMF/ECB…

Commodity Market Inefficiencies: Deep Research Report

Posted on 20/04/202620/04/2026 by Ugur

Cross-Asset Arbitrage, Structural Spreads, and Actionable Alpha Opportunities Prepared: April 19, 2026Analyst: Quantitative Research — Commodity Markets \& Cross-Market InefficienciesScope: Global commodity markets, derivatives, FX, and emerging asset classes — 1. Executive Summary This report identifies and analyzes 21 market inefficiencies spanning energy, metals, agriculture, FX/macro, emerging, and derivatives markets. Six original inefficiencies are extended with 2023–2026 data, and 15 newly identified opportunities are profiled in detail. Key findings: Top 5 most actionable today (2026):…

Ensemble Learning Methods for Forex Prediction

Posted on 12/04/202612/04/2026 by Ugur

Executive Summary This document presents a comprehensive, APA-formatted analysis of 24 ensemble learning studies for Forex forecasting conducted between 2021 and 2025. The analysis standardizes performance metrics across heterogeneous reporting formats and provides method-specific rankings, architecture analysis, and implementation recommendations. Conclusion This comprehensive analysis of 24 Forex ensemble studies from 2021-2025 reveals significant advances in ensemble methods for currency forecasting. Key findings include: Major Trends: Best Practices: Research Gaps: Future Directions:

“New Trading Platform” From Scratch #1 – Infra Setup

Posted on 21/02/202601/03/2026 by Ugur

I will start a new series called “New Trading Platform”. In this series I will design a transportable renewed platform from scratch. I will start from barebone metal server and build step by step a fully functional framework. Walkthrough: Proxmox Post-Installation Configuration I have successfully configured your fresh Proxmox installation on x.59.252.177. The system is now up-to-date and ready for use with the free No-Subscription repository. Changes Made 1. Repository Configuration 2. System Update 3. Subscription…

“TradeLook” A new Front End for MyFXBook CSV Downlaod

Posted on 07/02/202601/03/2026 by Ugur

By using AntiGravity I have created a new frontend for myfxbook.com CSV downloads. If you have a myfxbook registered tracked trading account you can just upload the downloaded CSV and start playing around to see the performance of different Magic Numbers. This is crucial for improving right sizing and having right algos performing. Link to Functionity: https://ugurcandan.com/tradelook/

Test Your Trading vs Investing Knowhow

Posted on 21/12/202521/12/2025 by Ugur

If you do not understand what is going on below on a “Gamma scalping” strategy on BTC (bitcoin as an asset) You should never ever try trading on any asset class 🙂 How a real fund makes money from volatility (step-by-step, using $100,000 BTC) Assume: At the start:Delta-neutral. No directional risk. Now let’s see how they profit. Step 2 – BTC goes up 10% → $110,000 Straddle delta becomes +0.5 BTC.The fund is unintentionally long…

5 Year Analysis of US30, GER30, NIKKEI, CHINA50, WTI, UKX, US500, EmergingBasket, GOLD, Bitcoin, Meta, SAP, Nvidia, Palantir, Google

Posted on 29/11/202507/02/2026 by Ugur

Lets see them in Order: 5 Year Analysis of US30, GER30, NIKKEI, CHINA50, WTI, UKX, US500, EmergingBasket 5 Year Analysis of US30, GER30, NIKKEI, CHINA50, WTI, UKX, US500, EmergingBasket ADD GOLD. 5 Year Analysis of US30, GER30, NIKKEI, CHINA50, WTI, UKX, US500, EmergingBasket, GOLD ADD Bitcoin. 5 Year Analysis of US30, GER30, NIKKEI, CHINA50, WTI, UKX, US500, EmergingBasket, GOLD, Bitcoin ADD (Meta, SAP, Google) as an example of top europe and US stock tickers. Now…

USA Stocks Trading Algo Results: Golden Question: Which Yield Curve is better?

Posted on 22/11/202522/11/2025 by Ugur

Let’s see your peference. I have posted 4 Different Algo’s. they more or less do the same but the yield curves are very different. I have also linked the code blocks if you want to test it yourself.

What if Test: 30 Mounths of Turtle Trade Test

Posted on 03/11/202503/11/2025 by Ugur

Big‑picture summary (Turtle Trading Style) Time Span for Test: 1/1/2023 to 30/06/2025 Goal: Trade a Turtle‑style breakout on a top‑25, high‑liquidity universe using daily data.Entry: Go long when the current price breaks above the rolling 30‑day highest close. Exit (priority order):Stop‑loss at −25% from average entry price.Take‑profit at +30% from average entry price.Exit if price falls below the rolling 15‑day lowest close. Position sizing: Target 20% of portfolio value per position. ——— QuantConnect Code Generated…

Who are the winners of last 24 months for investors? Nvidia, Bitcoin, Gold, US30…

Posted on 01/11/202507/02/2026 by Ugur

The graph visualizes the performance of all fifteen assets from November 2023 to October 2025:

Updated Ranking of 15 Assets (Nov 2023 – Oct 2025)The table below provides the full, final ranking, with the new assets slotted based on their performance (starting point Nov 2023=100$).

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