Trading Technologies
The Sharpe ratio is interpreted as follows:Sharpe Ratio < 0 Poor. The strategy is generally unprofitable.Sharpe Ratio < 1.0 Undefined. The risks are not justified. The use of such strategies can only be considered when there are no alternatives.Sharpe Ratio ≥ 1.0 Good. If the Sharpe Ratio is higher than one, it means that the risks are justified by the portfolio/strategy performance.Sharpe Ratio ≥ 3.0 Excellent. A high ratio indicates lower probability of losses in…
Let’s first look at the results of different investment tools in 2023 I have selected commodities, crypto currencies and some interesting stocks for comparison. The table below represents the summary of all trades of 2023. All values are either ratios or In Euro currency. https://ugurcandan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/DetailedStatement2023.xlsx All transactions listed.
Test dates: 01-06-2023 to 01-12-2023 Telegram Channel Name: XAUUSD (Gold) Master Subscriber 1,700 users Total Trades: 460 Short Trades (won %): 249 (32.13%) Long Trades (won %): 211 (36.02%) Total Deals: 920 Profit Trades (% of total): 156 (33.91%) Loss Trades (% of total): 304 (66.09%) Largest profit trade: 218.72 Largest loss trade:-72.85 Average profit trade: 6.70 Average loss trade: -5.63 Maximum : 11 (18.59) Maximum consecutive losses ($): 20 (-111.70) Maximal : 442.55 (7)…
From: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The book is quoted by Fortune as “ One of the smartest books of all time”. Probably an over statement by still a very interesting read because you can both have an understanding of science, culture and psychology on trading. I would agree and disagree on some of his comments. All Fundamental comments I would agree but for the new era of AI and real time risk…
Rule #1 – There would always be a question mark on if it would be successful or not? Once you google “The Tortoise Trainer” you will get the most expensive piece of art in Turkish Painting – Painted by Osman Hamdi. The Tortoise Trainer is a painting by Osman Hamdi Bey, with a first version created in 1906 and a second in 1907. Hamdi’s painting of an anachronistic historical character attempting to train tortoises is…
https://ugurcandan.com/mql5-signal-tracking-key-stats-per-month/ Link is the key stats of for the 196 signals that I am following. As of 28/May/2023: out of 195 tracked signals 77 discontinued. 32 in monthly loss with average -16%, 86 of them in monthly win with average +8%. 23 of them (best of the best) have a monthly gain of +20% in average. Ok one might have 20% monthly gain but is this a sustainable model? how does the growth look like…
I have been following some telegram signals. The owners of those signals want to remain anonymous. I assume it must be deficult to keep customers happy. Nearly all have paid channels. I just fallow one paid channel. All others are free shared signals from the channel owners. I have screened their performance from july 2022 to April 2023. You can see the results on the table below. I will also publish their portfolio correlation graph….
Ig you recall I discussed about Kelly Criteria and I have recorded a video to derive the formula. Link Now the open Question was about the formula when a Risk Reward ratio was different than 1. In the coin toss problem you either win 1X or you loose 1X. This is very rare in real life. Kelly criteria is as below K= win % – Loose % /Risk Reward ratio A set of different senarios….
Consolidated FTMO Results Date Result Drawdown Return Aggregate Return 13 March 26 March 3.4% 0.8% 26.3% 27 Feb 12 March 3.4% 5.3% 25.3% 6 Feb 19 Feb 5.84% 7.0% 19% 3 Jan 16 Jan 5.5% 5.0% 11.2% 18 Dec 31 Dec 3.3% 5.9% 5.9% Those 2 weeks were intersting. I got 38.5% win rate. It was probably the lowest of all times but RR was 1.7. This RR result gave me a positive result…
A New Interpretation of Information Rate. Created in 1956 by John Kelly, a Bell Labs scientist. Let us consider a communication channel which is used to transmit the results of a chance situation before those results become common knowledge, so that a gambler may still place bets at the original odds. Consider first the case of a noiseless binary channel, which might be used, for example, to transmit the results of a series of…