Trading – Page 2 – Ugur Candan

MARKETS are Rational PEOPLE are NOT

Posted on 13/01/202513/01/2025 by Ugur

The “efficient markets” theory is half right. The market’s mechanism for allocating prices is extremely fair. It’s a simple two-way auction process by which price moves over time to facilitate trade either up or down-an extremely rational, efficient process. The other half of the efficient market equation, however, is often wrong; people are seldom rational when they make financial decisions. The first step toward more profitable investing is to accept that market irrationality is due…

Nassim Nicholas Talep and Harry Markowitz Two most read papers about portfolio management

Posted on 06/01/202506/01/2025 by Ugur

Nassim Nicholas Talep “Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails” Published in 2020. A recent read compared to Markowitz “Portfolio Selection” published in “The Journal of Finance”, Vol. 7, No. 1. (Mar., 1952), pp. 77-91. Both of them are must reads. Markowitz passed away on 2023. I wonder if those two guys ever meet each other. If they ever did I wonder if they discussed their own approaches. I will search for it and let you know…

The (Mis)Behavior of Markets – Must know fact about markets

Posted on 01/01/202501/01/2025 by Ugur

Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson spend good amount of time for making it understandable in the book “The (Mis)Behavior of Markets” “Markets are much riskier than we have been led to believe. They are prone to violent, unpredictable swings, and these swings are not mere anomalies but part of the natural order of things.” This quote highlights Mandelbrot’s critique of traditional models that underestimate market risk and fail to account for extreme events. “The…

Design of my Trading Platform

Posted on 29/12/202416/08/2025 by Ugur

I would constantly update this post because it is also evolving over time and I would also want to write about my failures. My findings are as precious as my successful findings.

The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt – A must listen podcast

Posted on 22/12/202422/12/2024 by Ugur

The link to the podcast: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino | Top Traders Unplugged The structure of the market is that the money flows from the many to the few. So, you have to be among the few, not among the many. If you do normal human reflexes, normal human reactions, then you’ll almost always find yourself among the many and you’ll be a loser. Trading…

Monthly Updated List of 157 Reliable MQL5 Signals – Test Starting for 2025

Posted on 15/12/202415/07/2025 by Ugur

As of 12122024 I have selected 157 signals from mql5 signal list. I had the following criteria Max Drawdown 40%Min 1% Profit per monthmin 50 trading weeksmin 1.5 profit factor Here is the list of 157 signals in an excel file. (I will attach the file here.) Every month I will update the results excel below. You would see the date and end result…. Enjoy 157 Signal report file is just up in the link…

13 Laws of Trading – No Compromise can be done!

Posted on 22/09/202422/09/2024 by Ugur

The 13 Laws # 1 – Have A Game Plan When Trading… And Stick To It # 2 – Control Your Emotions At All Times # 3 – Stay Disciplined And Think Objectively # 4 – Don’t Trade Just To Trade # 5 – Never Think About Money When Trading # 6 – Winning Percentage Means Absolutely Nothing # 7 – Lose Like A Professional # 8 – Let Your Winners Run # 9 –…

Trading Results Online Analysis is Available

Posted on 24/08/202409/11/2024 by Ugur

Thanks to sites likewww.myfxbook.com and www.fxblue.com we have nearly infinite way of analyzing our trading performance. I generated an online results analysis page. https://ugurcandan.com/trading/ With the link provided you have a near real time analysis of my trades in MT4 terminal. This is extremely useful because trading companies archive your trades after 30 to 90 days. In such cases you loose your valuable learning potential and just left with results at monthly break down. I…

How to Select Best Signals?

Posted on 21/01/202421/01/2024 by Ugur

The Sharpe ratio is interpreted as follows:Sharpe Ratio < 0 Poor. The strategy is generally unprofitable.Sharpe Ratio < 1.0 Undefined. The risks are not justified. The use of such strategies can only be considered when there are no alternatives.Sharpe Ratio ≥ 1.0 Good. If the Sharpe Ratio is higher than one, it means that the risks are justified by the portfolio/strategy performance.Sharpe Ratio ≥ 3.0 Excellent. A high ratio indicates lower probability of losses in…

Results of 2023 Trading–All of 2023

Posted on 14/01/202411/02/2024 by Ugur

Let’s first look at the results of different investment tools in 2023 I have selected commodities, crypto currencies and some interesting stocks for comparison. The table below represents the summary of all trades of 2023. All values are either ratios or In Euro currency. https://ugurcandan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/DetailedStatement2023.xlsx All transactions listed.

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