Trading Performance – Ugur Candan

DEEP RESEARCH: Deviation from Fair Value in Commodity & FX Market Efficiency (2020-2026)

Posted on 21/04/202621/04/2026 by Ugur

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DIRECT ANSWER: Commodity and FX markets exhibit persistent and exploitable deviations from theoretical fair value due to institutional constraints, behavioral biases, market microstructure frictions, and information processing limits. Key exploitable inefficiencies include: PPP deviations persisting 3-7 years, commodity futures term structure roll yields of 5-15% annually, BEER/FEER exchange rate misalignments of 15-40%, and oil price deviations from marginal cost by $20-40/bbl during supply shocks. CONFIDENCE: Medium-High – Based on 60+ sources including IMF/ECB…

Commodity Market Inefficiencies: Deep Research Report

Posted on 20/04/202620/04/2026 by Ugur

Cross-Asset Arbitrage, Structural Spreads, and Actionable Alpha Opportunities Prepared: April 19, 2026Analyst: Quantitative Research — Commodity Markets \& Cross-Market InefficienciesScope: Global commodity markets, derivatives, FX, and emerging asset classes — 1. Executive Summary This report identifies and analyzes 21 market inefficiencies spanning energy, metals, agriculture, FX/macro, emerging, and derivatives markets. Six original inefficiencies are extended with 2023–2026 data, and 15 newly identified opportunities are profiled in detail. Key findings: Top 5 most actionable today (2026):…

What is the CAGR achieved in Trading by TOP Trader “James Simons”?

Posted on 15/07/202515/07/2025 by Ugur

Yes James Simons… I have been referring to him on different occasions. This math lover, who earned his PhD from the University of California, is known for founding and creating Renaissance Technologies Chern-Simons formwith a technical analysis style in its trading activities. Reported revenue reached $18.5 billion in 2018. Although James Simons was included in Bloomberg’s 2011 list of the 50 most influential people and was named “the world’s smartest billionaire” by the Financial Times…

Michael Saylor’s Prophecy About Crypto Currency

Posted on 13/07/202513/07/2025 by Ugur

“…In his latest presentation at BTC Prague, Michael Saylor presented “his bitcoin prophecy”, predicting that bitcoin will reach a price of USD 21 million per coin by 2046 (21 years from now). While USD 21 million sounds crazy right now, it is important to put this into perspective. This price would imply an annual return of 28.5% over the next 21 years. If we consider that over the last 21 years, Apple’s stock has returned…

Long Waited 156 Signal Analysis MQL5 03/2025

Posted on 01/04/202515/07/2025 by Ugur

Lets Assume we bet 100 USD on Each signal. and I would stop trading the signal at 25% DD.156 x 100 = 15,600 Total First Selection of Signals: 156 (I counted them wrong as 157) 33 :Exploded 🙂 – account closed. We do not know the exact reason for stopping but we assume they blow the account up. We would have stopped at 25% DD and we have 75 USD after stoploss. 70 of them…

Monthly Analysis of Trading Performance – “tcbridgenew”

Posted on 29/03/202504/04/2025 by Ugur

Month 03-2025 03/2025 TCBridgeNew PDF Report Link Monthly % Returns Cumulative Return % https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT9i9SSkydmxyFM5AGBaF-IeMCutKAhR8llrg5ZTb1gbd_Lzq7dyKsGHFoc9D4Xf25EK9h-zkIej55J/pubhtml https://ugurcandan.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Tcbridgenew032025_drowdowns.pdf As you can see we had 25 active strategies working on the account. Total Return: 96.8% with -3%DD on the last day of March. The Graphs are active Graphs – I copied the results on a static google sheet. You never know brokers sometimes delete the past history logs. I have unfortunately lost some of my account history. This time…